Lesson 10: Technology assessment and forecasting.

This lesson focused on  the different methods of technological assessment . Reading one provided a wide perspective on the different methods of technological assessment(TA). An interesting method of TA discussed in this paper which caught my attention is interpretive structural modeling, ISM Begins with an identifying an issue or problem, the elements which the issue comprises of are then listed out and a relationship matrix is then formed between this element. This Structured approach provides a simple but yet effective approach to identifying potential problems and results that may result whenever an element which the issue comprises of is changed. This provides a simple, flexible and logical approach to forecasting potential changes that may arise when from a particular technology is invented.

Another noteworthy point discussed in class was the alternative approach to strategic foresight. Instead of extrapolating forecast from pst to present the alternative approach presented to us was to work back from the future. This essentially calls us to see where we want to go with in terms of our vision for technology and development and then addressing that facts that have to be changed in the present in order to realise this vision .Such an approach will allow people to break out of the constraints of our limitations which may be subconsciously embedded in us due to our perceptions of what cannot be achieved based on past data, which may bind potentially revolutionary ideas. Thus I believe such an approach is one that change leaders should adopt .This was probably the topic I wish we would have discussed in greater detail, as we only spent about 5 mins on it. 

Class rating 8/10

Session 9: future and emerging technologies

The focus on this Week's TWC lesson was what I found to be most interesting topic covered thus far, Future and Emerging Technologies. We were introduced to two important concepts related to the development of future technology, namely Market driven and technology driven technological methods of developing new systems and products. We were introduced to several interesting videos on emerging technologies such as  smart grids and plastic logic. The readings for this session were covered a whole spectrum of emerging technologies which ranged from nanotechnology to genetic engineering and even augmented reality. Presentations for this session were also equally interesting, comprising of driverless cars,  spider pills and cryonics.

Some interesting ideas that captured my attention :

1)Molecular transistors from reading 3. This essentially explored the possibility of using molecules to act as transistors . What is fascinating about this is that it would allow for further miniaturization  of our electric components. One must remember that not too long ago, in the early 50's transistors were visible, bulky chips which was then considered state of the art, helping to create the transistor radio. The fact that scientist can envision 'shrinking' transistors to the molecular level is a testament of man kinds technological progress.

2)The Smart energy Grid video by Siemens gave a fresh look to how future green technologies could be combined in an energy efficient way to ensure the optimal usage of energy. What intrigued me the most form this was the approach to overcoming the shortfalls of renewable energy.(It's non continuous energy supply ) The smart grid system advocated the storage of energy in idle systems, this energy would be fed back into the grid during times when there may be a shortfall in renewable energy due to unforeseen circumstances ( eg: cloud cover reducing the solar energy output ) hence providing a unique, innovative solution that has plagued renewable energy sources.

With regards to my presentation on Fusion technology: Here is an alternative project on nuclear fusion running parallel to the ITER concept. Enter the NIF ( national ignition facility )The NIF aims to attain nuclear fusion but bombarding a fuel pallet with lasers. Check this video out: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmIHD6P3rdo&feature=related

Key takeaway point:

A fascinating debate  which we had about in class was on cryonics.  Of the many points being brought about a few moral issues which I overlooked was brought to my attention. Firstly, Cryonics would be dabbling with the  scientific ,moral and spiritual aspects of life and death. This is because cryonics would firstly involve "killing" the subject by freezing and then "defrosting" the subject at a later date, possibly using nano bots to repair the internal damage done by the freezing process. While Scientist may have had good intentions in envisioning such a technology, there is simply too much uncertainty involving the potential implications of killing and resuscitating a person back to life ( if it is even possible )

Another key point which I found interesting was from reading 2  and our discussion in class which covered the topic of nanotechnology. Nanotechnology offers benefits  that are wide ranging and which will influence  many industries and sectors. For example, nanotechnology could be used to improve the efficiency of solar panels , it could also be used in the materials science area to help develop new composites such as carbon nanotubes which could be even used for space elevators, nano bots could lastly also be applied in the medical arena. I believe that because of the almost limitless application which nanotechnology offers to a wide spectrum of industries, We should be willing to spend more on further research in nano technology as breakthroughs in this field are likely to have significant positive impact in different industries worldwide through it's wide reaching effects. There is however an interesting point which was raised up in class. While nanotechnology may have the ability to influence all industries, in some areas, it may not be necessary. Take the medical arena. Injecting Nano bots into the bloodstream to cure a cancer may sound really advanced. But in actual fact it may be solving the problem In the wrong way. Nature has already been coping whit these "nano" problems thorough it's biological systems, Shirking down machines to do a job that could be solve by biological cells does seem to be an over complication of the situation.

Some food for thought:

A  particular technology I wish would have been discussed would be telepathic information processing( the ability for computer systems to read our thoughts ). I believe , such technology, if possible that is , would drastically change the way humans interact with machines and the virtual world

Overall rating 10/10

Session 8: Energy and World Change: Past, Present, Future

The Focus on session 8 is on an issue which I believe is going to be evermore crucial as mankind progresses into the future. Energy. Out reliance on energy has grown exponentially in the past century with mankind ever so reliant on his usage of energy for development. Yet the primary means which we get our energy ( fossil fuels ) is almost primitive an comparison with all the other technologies that we are using nowadays. Furthermore, burning fossil fuels or any fuel’s in particular is based on simple chemical reaction of combustion and whatever fuel is burnt, be it fossil ( natural gas , oil ) or renewable ( bioethanol ) carbon dioxide, which is a greenhouse gas, is still a by-product. In this lesson, the class and (some) readings gave an interesting perspective on alternative energy sources that could wean us off this addiction to fossil fuels.

There were two particular presentations which I must applaud for exposing us to revolutionary ideas. The first being the presentation about KiteGen. Although the thought of using kites to generate power seemed somewhat childish initially, however upon further elaboration into the workings of the one can deduce that there is strong scientific rational behind such a system ( exploiting the higher altitude winds ) albeit the airspace constraints, such a system could work well if employed in remote corners of the earth ( such as in remote parts of Russia ) where they could possibly provide energy for a myriad of scattered towns in the area.

Amanda introduced us to the idea of pumping geo – engineering and the somewhat controversial concept of pumping Sulphur Dioxide into the atmosphere. Although it may temporary help too cool down the earth, I fear that such a move would have even more disastrous effects in the long run. Just imagine the acid rain fall out that would occur form injecting large quantities of sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere. Surely this would be enough to cause wide spread damage to the forest of the world ( which will surely suffer from the effects of acid rain ) In my opinion, the side effects of destroying or damaging our forests and plants ( which act as a greenhouse gas absorber ) will outweigh any short term effects of reflecting some sunlight from the earth’s surface. It would probably be setting us up for an even worse ecological disaster, once our forest are slowly wiped out by a world wide flood of acid rain due to this unconventional idea.

Lastly, as I mention in the start of this blog.  A particular topic I wish we could have discussed further would be the quest for entirely different forms or energy producing reactions ( such as antimatter or nuclear fusion ) . Would it be worthwhile for us to divert significant portion of research funding to perfect possible energy systems that could be derived form these two areas of cutting edge physics ? ( or any other similarly efficient , non-carbon dioxide producing chemical reaction ? )

class rating : 9/10 

The BioBusiness Revolution 2: Agriculture and the Environment: Past, Present, Future !

Session 7

This session dwelled further into the bio business  revolution. Much of what was talked about in class was on the issues  brought out in reading one.  The first focus of the reading and some of our discussion in class was on the need to help farmers in the agricultural sector who are by large stuck in valley opportunities (due to their low value added farming processes  ) and through the use of technology transform their businesses into high value added " summit" opportunities. 2 of the most promising ways suggested to increase the earning of such farmers which I believe will yield the highest "bang for the buck" would be the introduction of bio pharming  to farmers  and attempting to move farmers up the value chain. With respect to the former, the relative infancy of this sector means that the market has not been saturated, hence bio pharming may provide farmers with fantastic profit margins. The Latter proposal is perhaps the most efficient method of improving financial status of farmers, the capital requirements to package goods ( and hence move closer up the chain to the end consumer ) would be minimal compared with the increase in margins that would follow in suite.

In our general discussion in class ( and also in reading 1 ) we also dwelled into how bio technology could be used to solve environmental problems and promote industrial development . Certain technologies that attracted my curiosity, particularly Bio remediation and the usage of plants for extraction of metals. Bioremediation indeed looks to provide innovative solutions to environmental clean up ( of our mess !! ). But as mentioned by proff,  there still may be negative side effects from its employment, as seen by the dead fish ,possibly killed by the biofilms used to break up oil slicks in the BP oil rig incident this year.

The usage of plants for mining is a totally mind blowing idea, I initially though it was too good to be through when I read about it tin article one. But as Proff did explain in class. It does work ! I believe if this process could be further enhanced and perfected, it will provide us with a much " greener " alternative to mining the earth for minerals Surely plating plants would have less negative environmental consequences then carving big holes in the ground and polluting eco-systems in the process.

One of the presentations that I found quite interesting was the presentation on biofuels and particularly why the USA has not embraced it.( which is due to oil price falling significantly in the most recent recession ) Sadly this show's that sometimes our free market economy sometime fails to efficiently price in the negative externalities of oil. Furthermore, the global economy and governments adopt a short term view in their policies ( choosing to step down efforts to promote biofuels whenever oil price dropped from it's highs )  which results in overly sluggish progress in adopting alternative, greener forms of energy. In light of this, perhaps something that I wished could have been discussed in greater detail would be : would it even be possible to implement global policy changes such the price of oil could accurately reflect it's negative externalities ?

Lastly, the another topic covered in the presentations was related to Intellectual property for GM crops and how Monsanto's business model is seemingly un-ethical. The real issue behind this debate however is more to do with fundamentals of capitalism then is it to do with Monsanto's business model.  In essence, we have to ask, when do we draw the line between being profit driven and the need  to be humanitarian ?  This is particular relevant to the bio business industry and will be called into question whenever famine arises due to a lack of crops or low yields. Should  companies such as Monsanto release their patented GM crops to farmers who are unable to afford it such as in the situation such as Haiti, without any strings attached. A question to ponder about based on this situation is : whether companies involved in similar cases should come up with Corporate Social Responsibility ( CSR )guidelines in which they will intervene ( by providing their higher yielding GM crops freely ) to avert famine caused by the lack of crops ? This is particular pertinent in the event of natural disasters in developing countries, such as Pakistan ( 2010 )or Haiti, where many farmers corps have been wiped out and at the same time, they lack the financial means to purchase a seeds for a new harvest.

Overall rating : 9/10